Challenges and Risks for the World Economy

Weltwirtschaft, Weltkonjunktur, Welt, World economy, International business cycle, World

A public guarantee of a minimum return to defined contribution pension scheme members

The recent financial crisis has clearly demonstrated the exposure of defined contribution (DC) pension scheme members to extreme financial market risks. This paper argues that the government might offer DC plan members a minimum return guarantee, funded by risk based premia. Option pricing formulas show that the guarantee could be quite expensive, but public provision could reduce the costs borne by workers. Such an arrangement would be sustainable for the government and would give workers an acceptable benefit/contribution ratio in worst-case scenarios, while still allowing them to reap the advantages of occupational or individual funded pension schemes.defined contribution pension schemes, financial market tail risks, return guarantees, exchange option, ModiglianiÂ’s Treasury CFDB swap

"Knowledge, technology and economic growth: an OECD perspective"

In this paper we present an international comparison of growth trends with special attention given to developments in labour productivity, allowing for human capital accumulation, and multifactor productivity (MFP), allowing for changes in the composition of fixed capital. In this context an attempt is made, where possible, to identify both the embodied (in particular in ICT equipment) and disembodied components of technical progress. The possible relation between improvements in MFP and the accumulation of knowledge (as proxied by R&D expenditures) is also discussed, and some tentative policy considerations are advanced, mainly with reference to general framework conditions that might have a bearing in fostering technological changes

Do capital gains affect consumption? Estimates of wealth effects from Italian householdsÂ’ behavior

We use detailed data on housing prices in Italy available for a large number of years and with a fine geographical breakdown to compute capital gains and losses on the most widespread asset among consumers, housing, and inquire whether changes in housing values affect consumption. We find that consumer expenditures do react to capital gains, with a marginal propensity to consume out of real value changes of housing wealth of about 0.02. Reactions are different across types of consumers: while homeowners increase consumption when house prices increase, with a marginal propensity of about 0.035, the rentersÂ’ response to the higher house cost tends to be that of increased savings. For the owners of listed stocks the response to capital gains is difficult to estimate with statistical precision, even if, for the limited sample of owners of these assets, its negative sign may be indicative of prevailing substitution over income effects.wealth effects, consumption, housing, stock ownership

Knowledge technology and economic growth: recent evidence from OECD countries

This paper discusses some of the recent developments in growth theory, doing so from the perspective of a small open economy. After setting out a basic generic model, we show how it may yield two of the key models that have played a prominent role in the recent literature, the endogenous growth model and the non-scale growth model. We focus initially on the former, emphasizing how the simplest such model leads to an equilibrium in which the economy is always on its balanced growth path. One aspect of the model is the importance of fiscal policy as a determinant of the equilibrium growth rate, an aspect that is discussed in detail. We also show how the endogeneity or otherwise of the labor supply is crucial in determining the equilibrium growth rate and its responsiveness to macroeconomic policy. But transitional dynamics are an important aspect of the growth process and indeed much research has been directed to determining the speed with which the economy converges to its balanced growth path. We discuss alternative ways that such transitional dynamics may be introduced. These include (i) restricted access to the world capital market; (ii) the introduction of government capital , and (iii) the two-sector production model, pioneered by Lucas. In the original analysis, the two capital goods relate to physical and human capital and in the international context these naturally can be identified with traded and nontraded capital, respectively. Criticism of the endogenous growth model has led to the development of the nonscale growth model. This too is characterized by transitional dynamics, which are more flexible than those of the corresponding endogenous growth model. This model is much closer to the neoclassical model; in particular, the long-run growth rate is independent of macroeconomic policy. However, since such models are typically associated with slow convergence speeds, policy can influence the accumulation of capital for extended periods of time, leading to significant long-run level effects. The discussion seeks to emphasize the adaptability of the models to a wide range of issues. A final extension addresses the impact of volatililty on growth. This has been extensively analyzed empirically and a stochastic extension of the endogenous growth model provides a convenient framework within which to interpret this research.

The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis

This paper argues that the lack of timely and decisive policy action to correct domestic and external imbalances contributed crucially to the build-up of financial excesses that led to the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We focus on 2002-07 and perform a number of counterfactual simulations to investigate two central elements of the story, namely: (a) an over-expansionary US monetary policy and the absence of effective macro-prudential supervision, which permitted a prolonged expansion of debt-financed consumer spending; (b) the decision of China and other emerging countries to pursue an export-led growth strategy supported by pegging their currencies to the US dollar, resulting in a huge build-up of their official reserves, in conjunction with sluggish domestic demand in surplus advanced economies characterized by low potential output growth. The results of the simulations lend support to the view that if substantial, globally coordinated demand rebalancing had been undertaken in a timely manner, the macroeconomic and financial imbalances would not have accumulated to the extent that they did and the financial turmoil might have had less drastic global consequences.global imbalances, financial crisis, monetary policy, macroprudential regulation, structural reforms.

Money, Finance and Demography: The Consequences of Ageing

A significant ageing trend can be observed in Europe and in other parts of the world. Fertility is decreasing and life expectancy increasing. The impact of migration is growing. The book deals with the implications for financial markets of these demographic trends. Leading economists and financial experts from Europe and the United States evaluate the challenges to public pension systems and the private pension industry. Based on long-term projections of productivity and employment they look at potential growth in GDP per capita and implications for savings and wealth. Pension fund portfolio management is discussed together with the ability of capital markets to serve retirement-financing purposes. Fiscal as well as financial sustainability are analysed in depth. The roles of global imbalances and international capital movements are included. Most chapters also discuss policy implications - in particular with regard to how pension saving incentives and rules and incentives for retirement should be in order to ensure fiscal and financial sustainability. All contributions in the book are based on presentations at the 26th SUERF Colloquium on "Money, Finance and Demography - the Consequences of Ageing" held on 12-14 October, 2006 in Lisbon sponsored by Banco de Portugal and Millennium bcp and in cooperation with the Universidade Nova de Lisboa.

Welfare systems, ageing and work: an OECD perspective

This paper examines the scale of the demographic problem facing OECD economies and the labour market trends among older workers, considering the macroeconomic implications of welfare provision for ageing on living standards and fiscal balances. The nature and the scale of incentives for early retirement are then discussed, concluding that welfare systems in OECD countries will come under increasing pressure as the share of public pension payments on total welfare outlays could rise dramatically over the coming decades. The paper illustrates some of the recent OECD recommendations for responding to the challenges posed by ageing societies in the context of diverse social welfare systems and concludes that policies are urgently needed in a number of countries to pursue two fundamental objectives: increasing the average number of years individuals spend active in the labour force and raising the sources of provision for an adequate retirement income